Polymarket Sees Spike in Bets Following Hyperliquid’s LIT Listing

Polymarket traders are assigning an 86% probability that Lighter will launch its token airdrop before the end of 2025, as the decentralized exchange moves closer to its long-awaited token generation event (TGE).

Lighter, a perpetual DEX and a key competitor to Hyperliquid, has intensified airdrop speculation after opening wallet allocation forms and confirming the redistribution of slashed points. The momentum was further boosted on Monday when Hyperliquid listed Lighter’s yet-to-launch LIT token against USDC, signaling growing market confidence ahead of the launch.

In a Discord update on Monday, Sebas (Babastianj), a core contributor to Lighter, said the project is entering the final phase of Season 2 preparations.

“We’re in the final stretch of Season 2 and are running data science to remove Sybil, self-trading, and wash-trading points,” Sebas said, adding that all removed points will be redistributed to the community.

Lighter also launched an airdrop allocation form on Sunday, allowing eligible users to split their token allocation across up to four additional wallets. The optional form remains open until Friday.

“If you do not submit this form and are eligible, the airdrop will be sent to your main Lighter account,” Sebas noted.

Speculation accelerated further after Lighter transferred 250 million LIT tokens, or 25% of the total supply, on Friday—a move widely interpreted by the community as a signal that a user airdrop is imminent. The TGE is currently expected to take place by December 31.