Analysts Debate Whether to Sell or Hold Tokens Following an Airdrop

A fresh analysis has reignited one of crypto’s most persistent debates: should investors sell or hold tokens received through airdrops?

New data suggests that selling early may often be the more rational choice. In a recent post on X (formerly Twitter), crypto trader Didi reviewed personal airdrop allocations from the past year and found that the vast majority of tokens experienced severe post-launch declines. Among the worst performers, M3M3 fell 99.64%, Elixir dropped 99.50%, and USUAL declined 97.67%.

Even high-profile projects were not spared. Magic Eden is down 96.6%, Jupiter has fallen 75.9% from its token generation event (TGE) price, and Monad is lower by 39.13% since launch. Avantis was the lone outlier, trading 30.4% above its initial price.

The analyst noted that historical data consistently shows long-term holding of most altcoins is a low-probability strategy, with downside risk far outweighing the chances of sustained appreciation.

Broader industry research supports this view. Memento Research examined 118 token generation events in 2025 and found that 84.7% of tokens are currently trading below their TGE valuations. Approximately 65% have lost around half their value, while more than half are down 70% or more.

Projects launching with high fully diluted valuations (FDV) performed especially poorly. Of the 28 tokens that debuted with FDVs of $1 billion or higher, none are trading above their launch price today.

Analysts argue that many crypto projects pursue billion-dollar valuations regardless of product maturity or real-world utility. As a result, tokens often begin trading far above their fundamental value, leading to sharp repricing once market forces take hold.